Smart phone’s “cutting orders” is suspected again, but this link has locked in high growth

Recently, a research paper of securities companies pointed out that the upstream of the iPhone 12 was excessively active, and Apple had officially launched the first wave of order cutting, and TSMC was the first to bear the brunt. In this regard, kechuangboard daily learned from a number of supply chain personages on the 18th: Apple has not cut orders, and the supply chain is not abnormal at present. TSMC, Foxconn and Samsung are doing well in Apple’s smartphone component supply. A kind of

at the same time, as revealed in the above-mentioned research report, Xiaomi and oppo have also started to cut down the single item. According to the reporter of science and technology innovation board daily from Xiaomi (m), oppo (o), a number of industry personages in the supply chain and market buyer institutions, Xiaomi did act on November 22 and oppo on December 8, but it was not a single cut. A kind of

according to a digital supply chain source, “mov has cut down other components in the supply chain other than the main chip of smart phones, because the production cycle of these components is short, and the supply of mobile phone main chips is insufficient, resulting in the surplus of these components. So Xiaomi and other mobile phone companies have made adjustments. ” A kind of

as a matter of fact, some organizations have questioned the rumors of iPhone bill cutting. At the same time, apple suppliers’ recent performance reports and expectations for next year’s performance also seem to contradict the rumors. A kind of

the agency said Apple’s “order cutting” is questionable, and suppliers have disclosed high growth

in this link

Pacific Securities analyst Wang Lingtao pointed out in the report on the 13th that the core content of the above report was “TSMC’s 5nm utilization rate decreased from 100% in the second half of this year to 80% in the first half of next year”. Considering that the smartphone industry chain itself has the attributes of weak and peak seasons in the first half of this year, as well as the shortage of some front-end components, the iPhone chip orders in the first half of next year will continue at this stage According to the current situation of scheduling, the conclusion of cutting orders is somewhat arbitrary. A kind of

in addition, after the release of iPhone 12, its domestic sales volume in the first week was better than that of iPhone 11, which led to the improvement of weekly sales data of iPhone 12, indicating that the stimulation of iPhone 12 on the demand for phone replacement is more effective. Under the optimistic situation, investors are willing to delay the expectation of Apple chain. Based on this, Wang Lingtao’s above report maintains the industry’s “optimistic” rating. A kind of

the performance of supply chain companies also gives positive signals. According to the performance report of Apple PCB supplier Pengding holding, the revenue in November was 4.681 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 48.05%. The total revenue from January to November was 25.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%. The core reason for exceeding the market expectation is that the sales volume of Apple mobile phone is higher than expected, and the industrial chain is actively stocking in October and November, which drives the company’s operating rate to nearly full load, realizing the high growth of revenue port and exceeding the expectation. A kind of
In this regard, Guosheng securities analyst Zheng Zhenxiang reported on the 6th that, with the overall Apple mobile phone shipment exceeding expectations and the positive situation of stock preparation during the period, the industry chain’s rate of activity is currently saturated, and the mobile phone industry is expected to achieve positive growth in 2021. He thinks that Pengding is expected to achieve the off-season growth in the first quarter of previous years, which will help the growth beyond the expectation in 2021 again. A kind of

it is worth mentioning that the domestic PCB industry, represented by Pengding holdings, is one of the most promising links in this round of 5g mobile phone replacement cycle. Among them, FPC (flexible circuit board) is one of the most significant subdivisions of PCB demand in recent years, which is expected to usher in price and volume rise. A kind of
Zheng Zhenxiang of Guosheng Securities pointed out that the amount of FPC used in Apple or Android products is gradually increasing; in addition, due to the improvement of antenna materials due to the high frequency of 5g signal, the demand for high-value FPC such as MPI and LCP in smart phones is also increasing, which has led to the continuous increase of FPC value of consumer electronic smart phones. A kind of

chip capacity remains X factor

it still needs to be pointed out that although there is no concrete evidence to prove that big smartphone manufacturers such as apple, Xiaomi or oppo cut orders, the crisis of cutting orders has not been completely eliminated for the current smartphone industry. As the reporter of “science and technology innovation board daily” learned in the industry on the 18th, the chip still in the “out of stock and rising price tide” has become the X factor of mobile phone production capacity. A kind of

according to Tuolong Industrial Research Institute, in the fourth quarter, the demand of the wafer foundry market continued to be strong, and the production capacity of each factory remained fully loaded, which generally showed a price rise effect. Driven by this, it is estimated that the revenue of the top ten foundry factories in the world will exceed US $21.7 billion in the fourth quarter, with an increase of 18% year-on-year. Among them, the top three largest market share are TSMC, Samsung and liandian. A kind of

among them, TSMC’s 5nm capacity is mainly allocated to A14 and M1 chips developed by apple, part of 7Nm is allocated to high pass x55 baseband chips for apple, and the other part is allocated to Zen 2 and rDNA 2 of AMD. Due to the hot sales of new Xbox and ps5, the related demand is increased

with the increasing demand for mobile phone SOC and HPC chips, Samsung will expand the mass production of 5nm process products, and step up the deployment of EUV to develop mobile phone SOC with 4nm process. It can be predicted that Samsung’s production capacity will give priority to the supply of its own brands;

snapdragon 888, the flagship mobile phone processing chip released by Qualcomm last week, integrates X60 5g baseband, which will naturally occupy the production capacity first. Under the background that Huawei mobile phones are forced to cut off the cooperation with the wafer foundry, how much access to Qualcomm chips will become the key to establish the pattern of high-end models of Xiaomi, oppo and vivo in China;

the CEO of the company said that its latest 5g flagship chip will be released in the first quarter of next year, and the industry is expected to adopt advanced process technology. The lag in rhythm will increase the pressure on the allocation of production capacity, which may affect the supply of some 5g models for some time. A kind of

Leave a Reply